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Classical decision theory
assumes that decision making is (or should be) a rational process
whereby decision makers seek out and choose the course of action
that is most likely to maximize the attainment of their goals
and objectives. According to the classical theory, the decision-making
process can be broken down into a series of sequential steps.
Discern a Problem or Opportunity.
The decision-making
process can begin either of two ways. First, a decision maker
may perceive the existence of a problem Æ something that
is not going well and that requires action. For example, a golf
course superintendent may notice that absenteeism and turnover
among the employees have been steadily increasing to the point
that adequate staff are not always available to complete work
assignments on schedule and productivity is declining. A second
possible trigger to the decision-making process is the perception
of a unique opportunity that may have presented itself and that
should be taken advantage of. For example, a country club manager
may discover that a neighboring beach club is planning to close,
opening up opportunities for the manager's organization to expand
its own operations in that location. It is the perception of
problems and opportunities, not their actual existence, that
gets the decision-making process started. Problems and opportunities
may exist all around us, but if they are not perceived and noticed,
they do not initiate the decision-making process.
Formulate Goals and Objectives. Once a problem or opportunity has
been identified, the decision maker must clearly identify the
goals and objectives that a good decision should achieve. For
example, if a golf professional is experiencing a lack of satisfaction
and fulfillment with his or her current job, the pro's goals
for the decision-making process might be to identify, obtain,
and accept a new job that is most likely to maximize his or her
future satisfaction, development, and feelings of accomplishment
at another club or resort. The golf superintendent concerned
about declining productivity and increased turnover might set
goals of identifying and implementing changes in the work system
that are most likely to result in increased productivity and
reduced employee turnover.
Produce Alternatives. Once goals and objectives have been
set, the decision maker then generates alternative courses of
action that might result in goal attainment. This is the stage
in the decision-making process that requires the greatest component
of creativity and imagination. Ideally, the decision maker should
seek to generate as many alternatives as possible and should
try to ensure that the set of alternatives is relatively diverse.
In this way the decision maker increases the likelihood that
some good potential alternatives will not be excluded from further
consideration in the decision-making process. For example, the
golf superintendent concerned about high rates of absenteeism
and turnover should consider changing the pay and reward systems,
changing the design of work for employees, changing the leadership
styles of supervisors, changing the methods of work assignments
and scheduling, and so on. Restricting the consideration of alternatives
to changes in the pay system, for example, might result in many
potentially effective courses of action not being considered
in the decision-making process.
Collect Information. The alternatives that have been
gathered must be systematically evaluated. However, before evaluation
can proceed, information must be gathered regarding each of the
alternatives and their likely consequences. More specifically,
the decision maker must seek to learn as much as possible regarding
the likelihood that each alternative will result in the achievement
of the goals and objectives being sought. For example, the golf
professional who is dissatisfied with his or her current job
must gather a great deal of information regarding other jobs
that might be available. Information is required on what specific
opportunities are available at other clubs, how those clubs treat
their employees, what the person's long-term prospects might
be at each club, and so on.
Assess the Alternatives. Once all available information has
been collected regarding all of the alternatives under consideration,
the decision maker must use that information to evaluate the
alternatives in a systematic fashion. This requires the decision
maker to employ some technique that permits all of the information
collected regarding each of the alternatives to be analyzed and
compared. The outcome of this evaluation process should then
be a rank ordering of the alternatives from best to worst according
to their likelihood of leading to the attainment of the goals
and objectives of the decision maker. For example, the golf course
superintendent dealing with the problem of increased absenteeism
and turnover must systematically evaluate all of the consequences
anticipated to follow each course of action under consideration.
If changes in the pay system were made, what improvements would
be expected in absenteeism and turnover at what increased payroll
costs? If changes in job design were implemented, how disruptive
would they be and how much improvement could be expected?
Select the Best Alternative. This step should be quite straightforward
if the evaluation of alternatives has been conducted comprehensively
and systematically. The decision maker simply chooses the alternative
that the evaluation process has indicated to be most desirable.
Problems may arise at this stage, however, if the evaluation
process leads to the conclusion that two or more alternatives
appear equally likely to be best. For example, a graduating hospitality
student may have thought she always wanted to work for Los Angeles
Country Club. At the conclusion of the interviewing process she
simultaneously receives offers from Los Angeles Country Club
and Sawgrass Country Club. No matter how much information she
gathers or how much careful evaluation of alternatives she does,
it may remain almost impossible to tell which of the two offers
would be best for her.
Implement the Decision. Although, strictly speaking, the
decision-making process has ended once a decision regarding the
best alternative has been reached, it is also true that the decision-making
process is no more than a mental exercise if the chosen course
of action is not implemented. Further, issues of implementation
are frequently important factors in the choice of an alternative
in the previous stages. After a great deal of thought and analysis,
the golf course superintendent concerned about high absenteeism
and turnover may have decided that job redesign was the best
solution to the problem. While his decision may be a good one,
he still has much work ahead if that decision is to be effectively
implemented.
Evaluate Decision Effectiveness. The decision-making cycle should
not end until the decision maker judges the extent to which the
chosen alternative has succeeded in solving the initial problem
and achieving the goals identified at the outset of the process.
If such evaluation indicates success, then the decision-making
cycle is concluded. However, if the chosen alternative has not
solved the problem or achieved stated objectives, then the decision
maker must recycle through the decision-making process to generate
a new alternative. If, after implementing job enrichment, absenteeism
and turnover decline to acceptable levels, the golf course superintendent
can feel satisfied that a decision has resulted in the problem
being effectively solved. If, however, absenteeism and turnover
remain at high levels, the superintendent must go back to the
alternative-generating phase and attempt to arrive at a new course
of action.
The decision-making process
can be divided into three major phases. The first phase includes
framing the problem or opportunity, or determining exactly what
the decision maker faces and the objectives to be accomplished.
The second phase requires the generation of ideas, alternatives,
and information. The final phase requires a systematic analysis
reduction of the information and alternatives down to a single
choice of what will be pursued and implemented.
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Classical theory of decision
making assumes that decision making follows the above series
of steps and makes certain strong assumptions regarding what
happens at various stages in the process. We will outline some
of the critical assumptions (Higgins, 1991):
1. Goals and objectives are
known and agreed upon. Classical theory assumes that the goals
to be achieved in any decision situation are either predetermined
or else so obvious as to be straightforward. Classical theory
does not address itself to situations in which goals are unclear,
in which disagreement exists regarding goals, or in which several
goals are in conflict with one another.
2. All alternatives are considered.
The existence of the problem is recognized, its nature has been
identified, and all possible courses of action are considered.
According to classical theory, decision makers must generate
and evaluate all possible courses of action. Decision making
is thus an exhaustive (and probably exhausting) process in which
no potential solution to a problem is excluded from consideration.
3. All outcomes are taken
into account. The consequences of implementing each alternative
are certain, or a probability may be assigned to each. Classical
theory assumes that decision makers are aware of and take into
account every possible outcome associated with each alternative
under consideration.
4. Perfect information is
freely available. It is assumed that decision makers either possess
or can obtain (at no cost) perfect information regarding (1)
the value of every outcome that may be obtained; and (2) the
likelihood that each alternative course of action will result
in obtaining each of the outcomes.
5. Decision makers are maximizers.
Criteria for the best decision are known and agreed upon. Decision
makers will seek to maximize their situation by choosing the
best alternative.
6. Decision makers are rational.
They can assign values, order preferences, and make the decision
that will optimize the attainment of the decision maker's objectives.
Classical theory views decision makers as totally rational. This
total rationality results in the decision maker always choosing
the optimal course of action.
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Classical theory has enjoyed
a good deal of popularity partly because it appears to provide
a good description of how people should go about making decisions.
In addition, it provides specific guidance to decision makers
regarding how to improve the quality of decision making. The
Classical theory position that decision making should proceed
systematically through the series of steps is sound. Better decisions
likely result when decision makers carefully analyze problems,
evaluate multiple alternatives, and make systematic choices on
the basis of their analyses.
The problem with classical
theory lies in the assumptions it makes regarding how decision
makers can or should deal with each of the steps in the decision-making
process. The assumptions of classical theory are overstated and
generally impossible to implement in practice. Arnold (1986)
describes many of the shortcomings of classical theory's assumptions:
1. Assumption: Goals are given.
In many real decision-making situations goals are not given.
Indeed, a central problem in decision-making situations is determining
precisely which goal or goals are most important to attempt to
attain. For example, does the graduating hospitality student
with two job offers in hand choose the job with the highest salary
(monetary goal), the best career advancement prospects (development
goal), or the most interesting initial work assignments (challenge
and interest goal)? Similarly, does a club making decisions regarding
changes in its strategy choose one that it hopes will maximize
profit, total revenues, market share, long-term growth and stability,
or does it choose a strategy that will minimize costs, reduce
overhead, and decrease turnover? The decision maker must determine
which of a multitude of goals (many of which may be conflicting)
is most important to pursue.
2. Assumption: All alternatives
are considered. For all but the most trivial decisions it is
foolish to suggest that all alternatives can even be identified,
much less considered. How realistic is it to suggest that a graduating
hospitality student should consider and evaluate all possible
potential employers and jobs before choosing to accept an offer?
The ambiguity and complexity of organizational decisions make
this assumption even more untenable for organizational decisions.
The golf course superintendent seeking to reduce absenteeism
and turnover has a massive number of potential solutions available
to choose from, including any number of changes to the pay system,
new approaches to job design, and changes in supervisory styles.
Since the number of potential courses of action is so large,
adherence to this assumption of classical decision theory would
make it almost impossible for such a superintendent to ever to
arrive at a decision, since he or she might never finish generating
and evaluating all of the alternatives available.
3. Assumption: All outcomes
are taken into account. Just as it is likely impossible to generate
all possible alternatives, it is impossible to anticipate and
predict all possible outcomes of each alternative. The hospitality
student choosing between two job offers cannot know for sure
exactly what it will be like working for either organization.
Will all of the hoped-for opportunities at each club actually
materialize? Will the graduating student get along well with
his or her new boss? How will his or her co-workers feel about
a new person coming into the department? The future is inherently
uncertain and unpredictable, and no decision maker can ever be
sure that all possible outcomes of a decision have been taken
into account.
4. Assumption: Perfect information
is freely available. Information is not free, and only rarely
is it even feasible to obtain perfect information regarding the
ramifications of a course of action. Generating and evaluating
alternatives takes time, energy, and resources. Thus, the process
of obtaining information for use in decision making frequently
has high costs. As a result, almost all decisions are based upon
information that is to some extent inadequate and incomplete.
5. Assumption: Decision makers
are rational maximizers. The classical model assumes that decision
makers have a tremendous mental capacity both for remembering
and storing huge quantities of information and for processing
that information in order to assess which available alternative
is the optimal one. There is an assumption that managers have
complete knowledge of the situation. Psychological research indicates
that people are incapable of the kinds of mental arithmetic implied
by classical theory (MacCrimmon, 1976) and (Simon, 1976). The
conclusion is not simply that people do not make decisions in
the manner suggested by classical theory; more to the point,
they cannot.
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Julie Adams is the clubhouse
manager at The Barbed Wire Country Club, a large member-owned
club located in Texas. Let's look in on an operations meeting
she is leading with several department managers.
Julie: "We just received
the latest electricity bill for the main clubhouse. While utility
rates have not increased, the bill is up over 50 percent compared
to the same period last year. We have a real problem that we
must remedy. Last January we formulated goals and objectives
Æ they were given Æ in order to identify ways in which
we could cut utility bills 10 percent. We all agreed that these
methods were achievable. Unfortunately, we are woefully off target."
Smitty, the chief engineer
spoke up: "I'm not sure that we produced enough ways
that we could achieve our goal. For example, we didn't anticipate
that the weather would be this warm. While our utility bill was
up 50 percent last month, year-to-date figures are about the
same since we saved quite a bit on heat during the cold months.
What we really need to do is brainstorm some alternative methods
for saving on electricity to meet our goal of a 10 percent overall
reduction."
Millard, one of the housekeepers,
had this to say: "I think we should consider adding by-pass
switches to the HVAC system. Engineering had a great idea when
we installed the computer system to control the heat and air-conditioning;
but when food and beverage has a late event, I have to go into
the utility room and manually turn the entire club-wide system
back on so the ballroom doesn't get either too hot or too cold.
If we had those little egg-timer switches located above the thermostats,
we could regulate the temperature in one room without firing-up
the whole club."
"Or, we could just
stop booking outside functions Æ or make sure events are
over by 8:00 PM. Then, we'd save all kinds of money without having
to go to the expense of adding timers," quipped Monhegan
Lamanthsarrah, banquet supervisor. "Maybe we could just
close down altogether Monday through Wednesday; we could let
the club be dark."
Everyone enjoys a good chuckle.
"Okay, funny man,
we get your point. Remember, what we are trying to do is eliminate
waste, not cut down on service. Our original budget charge was
to look for ways to trim unnecessary expenses, so we could hold
the line on dues increases," stated Julie.
"You're right, I'm
sorry."
"No problem. Let's
get back to Millard's suggestion. It sounds like a possibility."
"Yes it is. As chief
engineer, I can also look into reduced-wattage bulbs, more efficient
system filters, re-balance the make-up air in the kitchen, and
look into the possibility of tinting certain windows."
"Now we're talking!
Let's get it going. Smitty, how much money do you need to get
started implementing?"
"Julie, don't you
think we should consider our alternatives? We're likely to spend
$15,000 on these alternatives. I'm not sure it will give us the
payback we are looking for. Don't you want me to run some numbers?
Texas Power will give me all the information I need Æ I can
get perfect information. We can run a regression model and predict
how much money will be saved versus the investment required.
You'll be able to maximize results."
"Look, we're being
evaluated on our ability to make our goals and objectives. I
have decision authority to commit up to $5,000. You can spend
the $15,000, but just make sure you fill out three purchase orders
(for $5,000 each). Write it up so that it is clear that what
you are buying will last for more than one year. Get them to
bill you in three $5,000 increments. We can depreciate the $15,000
amount as a capital expense without it going into operations.
Just do it. We've got to get back under control."
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